Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arkadag · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 4-0
Arkadag are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Aşgabat are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Arkadag hold a 59.9-point power-rating edge (89.8 v 29.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 15.9% in the Ýokary Liga, while Arkadag holds the strongest overall chance at 93% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 83% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arkadag
Probability
93.2%
Model confidence
15.9%
Arkadag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20