Arka Gdyniavs
Polonia Bytom
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 8/30/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arka Gdynia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arka Gdynia 1-1 Polonia Bytom
Original prediction
Arka Gdynia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 51.3% | 50.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.3% | 24.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.89 | 23.3% | 24.8% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.58 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Arka Gdynia
Probability
50.7%
Model confidence
50.7%
Arka Gdynia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 11 · GA 14 · avg 2.20/2.80