Arka Gdyniavs
Nieciecza
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 10/24/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nieciecza · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arka Gdynia 3-1 Nieciecza
Original prediction
Nieciecza
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 42.0% | 33.7% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.0% | 28.9% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.0% | 37.5% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Nieciecza
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Nieciecza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00