Arisvs
Karmiotissa
COMPLETEDCyprus · 1. Division · 9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aris · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aris 0-0 Karmiotissa
Original prediction
Aris
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 68.0% | 49.9% | -18.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.80 | 19.1% | 24.3% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 7.08 | 12.9% | 25.8% | 12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.80 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Aris
Probability
49.9%
Model confidence
49.9%
Aris has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArisWLDLL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KarmiotissaDDLWD
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ArisKarmiotissa
33.3Attack48.3
33.3Defence35.8
50.0Form33.3
42.7Power40.7
1.85xG1.32