Arisvs
Ethnikos Achna
COMPLETEDCyprus · Cup · 10/14/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aris · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aris 4-0 Ethnikos Achna
Original prediction
Aris
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 12:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 73.6% | 48.1% | -25.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.08 | 17.5% | 24.4% | 6.9 pts |
| Away | 10.03 | 8.9% | 27.5% | 18.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Aris
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Aris has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArisWLWDW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Ethnikos AchnaWWWLW
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
ArisEthnikos Achna
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
2.02xG1.72