Arisvs
AEK Larnaca
COMPLETEDCyprus · 1. Division · 10/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AEK Larnaca · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aris 1-1 AEK Larnaca
Original prediction
AEK Larnaca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 35.1% | 28.5% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.8% | 26.3% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.49 | 37.0% | 45.3% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
AEK Larnaca
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
AEK Larnaca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60