Aris Thessalonikisvs
Volos NFC
COMPLETEDGreece · Super League 1 · 10/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aris Thessalonikis · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aris Thessalonikis 3-2 Volos NFC
Original prediction
Aris Thessalonikis
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 03:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 61.0% | 47.5% | -13.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 23.4% | 26.0% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 5.97 | 15.6% | 26.4% | 10.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Aris Thessalonikis
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
Aris Thessalonikis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20