Aris Thessalonikisvs
OFI
COMPLETEDGreece · Super League 1 · 8/30/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aris Thessalonikis · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI
Original prediction
Aris Thessalonikis
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 56.5% | 42.1% | -14.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 24.5% | 26.9% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 4.91 | 19.0% | 30.9% | 11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Aris Thessalonikis
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Aris Thessalonikis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80