Aris Thessalonikisvs
Marko
COMPLETEDGreece · Cup · 9/16/2026, 1:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aris Thessalonikis · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 Marko
Original prediction
Aris Thessalonikis
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 79.5% | 53.0% | -26.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.75 | 13.4% | 23.3% | 9.9 pts |
| Away | 12.89 | 7.0% | 23.6% | 16.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Aris Thessalonikis
Probability
53.0%
Model confidence
53.0%
Aris Thessalonikis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60