Aris Thessalonikisvs
Iraklis 1908
COMPLETEDGreece · Super League 1 · 9/19/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aris Thessalonikis · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Iraklis 1908
Original prediction
Aris Thessalonikis
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 17:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 56.6% | 42.1% | -14.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 25.0% | 26.2% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 5.06 | 18.4% | 31.6% | 13.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.71 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Aris Thessalonikis
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Aris Thessalonikis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80