Aris Thessalonikisvs
Atromitos
COMPLETEDGreece · Super League 1 · 10/25/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aris Thessalonikis · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 Atromitos
Original prediction
Aris Thessalonikis
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 12:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 56.6% | 50.4% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.0% | 25.1% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 5.07 | 18.4% | 24.5% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Aris Thessalonikis
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
Aris Thessalonikis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40