GGOALVIO

Greece · Super League 1 · 9/3/2023, 5:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Aris Thessalonikis · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Aris Thessalonikis are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Asteras Tripolis are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Aris Thessalonikis hold a 10.4-point power-rating edge (53.7 v 43.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.0% in the Super League 1, while Aris Thessalonikis holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Aris Thessalonikis

Probability

54.0%

Model confidence

54.0%

Aris Thessalonikis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Aris ThessalonikisLLLWW

GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Asteras TripolisWLLDD

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Aris ThessalonikisAsteras Tripolis
47.2Attack40.4
59.3Defence44.4
50.9Form38.4
53.7Power43.3
1.74xG0.87
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