Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lund · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Ariana are 1W-0D-0L in their last 1 (W), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Lund are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (WLD), averaging 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 4 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Lund hold a 15.3-point power-rating edge (45.7 v 61.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.2% in the Ettan - Södra, while Lund holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lund
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Lund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 1.33/1.33