Argentinavs
Burkina Faso
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 10/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Argentina · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Argentina 7-0 Burkina Faso
Original prediction
Argentina
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.05 | 90.4% | 62.7% | -27.7 pts |
| Draw | 14.32 | 6.6% | 20.6% | 14.0 pts |
| Away | 31.37 | 3.0% | 16.8% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Argentina
Probability
62.7%
Model confidence
62.7%
Argentina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 1 · avg 3.20/0.20
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40