Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Argentina · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (12%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Argentina 4-0 Bolivia
Original prediction
Argentina
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 87.3% | 68.1% | -19.2 pts |
| Draw | 10.76 | 8.8% | 18.0% | 9.2 pts |
| Away | 24.04 | 3.9% | 13.9% | 10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Argentina
Probability
68.1%
Model confidence
68.1%
Argentina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArgentinaWWWWW
GF 14 · GA 1 · avg 2.80/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
BoliviaLLLWL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 3/5
ArgentinaBolivia
100.0Attack22.2
100.0Defence33.3
100.0Form22.2
95.7Power27.9
2.69xG0.65