Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Argentina · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Argentina 3-0 Benin
Original prediction
Argentina
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.01 | 94.7% | 67.4% | -27.3 pts |
| Draw | 27.44 | 3.5% | 17.9% | 14.4 pts |
| Away | 53.99 | 1.8% | 14.6% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Argentina
Probability
67.4%
Model confidence
67.4%
Argentina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArgentinaWWWWW
GF 21 · GA 0 · avg 4.20/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 4/5
BeninWDLDW
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
ArgentinaBenin
100.0Attack33.3
94.4Defence50.0
100.0Form58.3
94.7Power50.0
2.38xG0.72