Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lucchese · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Arezzo are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Lucchese are 1W-0D-0L in their last 1 (W), averaging 5.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 6 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lucchese hold a 39.4-point power-rating edge (32.0 v 71.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.9% in the Coppa Italia Serie C, while Lucchese holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lucchese
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Lucchese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 5 · GA 0 · avg 5.00/0.00