Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benevento · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arezzo 0-3 Benevento
Original prediction
Benevento
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.14 | 29.6% | 25.2% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 29.6% | 25.9% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 40.8% | 49.0% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Benevento
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
Benevento has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArezzoWDLLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BeneventoDWLWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ArezzoBenevento
38.1Attack47.6
33.3Defence66.7
47.6Form52.4
42.6Power57.2
0.94xG1.62