Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tikveš · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Aresimi 0-3 Tikveš, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Aresimi 1-1 Tikveš
Original prediction
Tikveš
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.10 | 22.0% | 8.9% | -13.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.0% | 13.9% | -11.1 pts |
| Away | 1.70 | 53.0% | 77.2% | 24.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.61 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
24.1 pts
Projected Score
Aresimi 0–3 Tikveš
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Tikveš
Probability
77.2%
Model confidence
77.2%
Tikveš has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AresimiDWLDL
GF 15 · GA 11 · avg 3.00/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TikvešWWDDD
GF 19 · GA 3 · avg 3.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AresimiTikveš
25.9Attack74.1
25.9Defence74.1
33.3Form59.3
31.2Power66.7
0.46xG3.05