Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aresimi · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aresimi 0-0 Skopje
Original prediction
Aresimi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 56.4% | 46.3% | -10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.4% | 26.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.95 | 18.2% | 27.4% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.55 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Aresimi
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Aresimi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AresimiWWLLL
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SkopjeDLDLW
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AresimiSkopje
33.3Attack16.7
25.0Defence33.3
50.0Form16.7
39.0Power26.2
1.52xG1.15