Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sileks · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aresimi 1-1 Sileks
Original prediction
Sileks
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 18:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.28 | 21.0% | 19.3% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.6% | 23.3% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.65 | 54.4% | 57.4% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.66 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Sileks
Probability
57.4%
Model confidence
57.4%
Sileks has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AresimiWLDLD
GF 14 · GA 10 · avg 2.80/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
SileksDDLLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AresimiSileks
25.0Attack54.2
20.8Defence58.3
33.3Form37.5
29.5Power47.7
0.78xG2.11