Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arendal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-1
Arendal are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Vard are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Arendal hold a 30.3-point power-rating edge (65.2 v 34.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Arendal holds the strongest overall chance at 85% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 86% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arendal
Probability
84.9%
Model confidence
9.5%
Arendal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60