Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arendal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-2
Arendal are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Notodden are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Arendal hold an 8.7-point power-rating edge (65.2 v 56.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Arendal holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 85% BTTS chance and 92% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arendal
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Arendal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60