Arenas Getxovs
Mérida AD
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/18/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mérida AD · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arenas Getxo 0-4 Mérida AD
Original prediction
Mérida AD
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.65 | 34.3% | 27.3% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.4% | 24.3% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 38.3% | 48.3% | 10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Mérida AD
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
48.3%
Mérida AD has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20