Arenas Getxovs
Athletic Club II
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/26/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Athletic Club II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arenas Getxo 0-3 Athletic Club II
Original prediction
Athletic Club II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 38.2% | 32.4% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.5% | 28.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 34.3% | 38.8% | 4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Athletic Club II
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Athletic Club II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00