Arema FCvs
Dewa United
COMPLETEDIndonesia · Liga 1 · 10/25/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dewa United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arema FC 4-0 Dewa United
Original prediction
Dewa United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.36 | 27.0% | 24.7% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 22.3% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.93 | 47.1% | 52.9% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Dewa United
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Dewa United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20