Ardsvs
Strabane Athletic
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Championship · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ards · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ards 0-1 Strabane Athletic
Original prediction
Ards
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 65.4% | 51.3% | -14.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.47 | 20.2% | 24.7% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 6.29 | 14.4% | 23.9% | 9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Ards
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Ards has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60