Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ards · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ards 0-2 Institute
Original prediction
Ards
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 39.4% | 39.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.6% | 27.0% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 34.0% | 33.9% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Ards
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Ards has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArdsWDLDW
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
InstituteDWLWW
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
ArdsInstitute
42.4Attack63.3
60.6Defence43.3
45.5Form46.7
50.9Power49.0
1.57xG1.38