Arda Kardzhalivs
Cherno More Varna
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arda Kardzhali · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arda Kardzhali 1-1 Cherno More Varna
Original prediction
Arda Kardzhali
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 49.8% | 66.7% | 16.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.1% | 19.4% | -8.8 pts |
| Away | 4.17 | 22.1% | 13.9% | -8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.27 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Arda Kardzhali
Probability
66.7%
Model confidence
66.7%
Arda Kardzhali has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20