Arda Kardzhalivs
Botev Vratsa
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 8/31/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arda Kardzhali · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Arda Kardzhali 2-0 Botev Vratsa, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Arda Kardzhali 2-0 Botev Vratsa
Original prediction
Arda Kardzhali
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 61.6% | 66.2% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.9% | 21.0% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 6.83 | 13.5% | 12.9% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Projected Score
Arda Kardzhali 2–0 Botev Vratsa
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Arda Kardzhali
Probability
66.2%
Model confidence
66.2%
Arda Kardzhali has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40