Arda Kardzhalivs
Botev Plovdiv
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/4/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arda Kardzhali · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (15%), 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arda Kardzhali 2-3 Botev Plovdiv
Original prediction
Arda Kardzhali
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 45.9% | 59.4% | 13.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.9% | 23.5% | -5.4 pts |
| Away | 3.65 | 25.2% | 17.1% | -8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–015%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Arda Kardzhali
Probability
59.4%
Model confidence
59.4%
Arda Kardzhali has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60