Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Turan · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Araz 2-2 Turan
Original prediction
Turan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.99 | 18.1% | 27.1% | 9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.3% | 27.7% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.62 | 55.6% | 45.3% | -10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.42 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Turan
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Turan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArazLLLDW
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TuranWLDWL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ArazTuran
33.3Attack66.7
33.3Defence66.7
0.0Form100.0
26.7Power80.3
1.08xG1.52