Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Araz are 1W-0D-2L in their last 3 (LWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded, while Sumqayıt are 3W-0D-1L in their last 4 (WWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 7 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Sumqayıt hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (41.0 v 52.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.9% in the Premyer Liqa, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 29% BTTS chance and 20% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.67
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/1.00