Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qabala · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Araz 1-2 Qabala
Original prediction
Qabala
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 35.8% | 35.9% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.2% | 27.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 35.0% | 36.3% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Qabala
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Qabala has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArazLLLDL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
QabalaLLLLW
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
ArazQabala
25.0Attack14.3
29.2Defence33.3
8.3Form19.0
23.9Power26.2
1.14xG1.16