Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kapaz · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Araz 0-2 Kapaz
Original prediction
Kapaz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 41.9% | 35.3% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.8% | 28.7% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 30.3% | 35.9% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Kapaz
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Kapaz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArazLDLLL
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
KapazDWLWW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ArazKapaz
33.3Attack50.0
33.3Defence50.0
0.0Form50.0
26.7Power50.0
1.20xG1.39