Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ararat · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ararat 1-0 Syunik
Original prediction
Ararat
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 47.7% | 47.8% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.0% | 25.7% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.55 | 25.4% | 26.5% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Ararat
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
Ararat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AraratWLLLW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
SyunikLDLDL
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AraratSyunik
23.8Attack14.3
38.1Defence23.8
28.6Form9.5
33.0Power20.8
1.53xG1.03