Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shirak · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ararat 1-1 Shirak
Original prediction
Shirak
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 33.3% | 28.8% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.6% | 27.3% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 38.0% | 43.9% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.15 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Shirak
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Shirak has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AraratDLWWL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
ShirakLLLWW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AraratShirak
29.6Attack40.7
44.4Defence55.6
37.0Form37.0
39.6Power45.0
0.91xG1.27