Ararat-Armeniavs
FC Noah
COMPLETEDArmenia · Premier League · 10/26/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Noah · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ararat-Armenia 2-1 FC Noah
Original prediction
FC Noah
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.49 | 25.9% | 28.9% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.9% | 26.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 47.2% | 44.4% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
FC Noah
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
FC Noah has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80