Ararat-Armeniavs
AZ Alkmaar
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/22/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AZ Alkmaar · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ararat-Armenia 0-4 AZ Alkmaar
Original prediction
AZ Alkmaar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.33 | 12.9% | 27.4% | 14.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.00 | 18.9% | 25.5% | 6.6 pts |
| Away | 1.39 | 68.2% | 47.1% | -21.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
AZ Alkmaar
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
AZ Alkmaar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20