Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Araguaína · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Araguaína are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Humaitá are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Araguaína hold a 57.3-point power-rating edge (64.0 v 6.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 93.0% in the Serie D, while Araguaína holds the strongest overall chance at 93% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Araguaína
Probability
93.0%
Model confidence
93.0%
Araguaína has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 2 · GA 14 · avg 0.40/2.80