Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Aragua FC 0-0 Petare FC, with an exact score probability of 34%.
Prediction record
Final result
Aragua FC 2-1 Petare FC
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 46.7% | 36.0% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.4% | 33.5% | 6.1 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 26.0% | 30.5% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Projected Score
Aragua FC 0–0 Petare FC
Exact score probability: 34%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.5%
Model confidence
36.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Aragua FCWDWWL
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Petare FCLLDDW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Aragua FCPetare FC
34.9Attack39.7
76.2Defence74.6
50.8Form60.3
55.9Power60.1
0.56xG0.55