Aragua FCvs
Monagas II
COMPLETEDVenezuela · Segunda División · 10/25/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aragua FC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Aragua FC 0-0 Monagas II, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Aragua FC 1-1 Monagas II
Original prediction
Aragua FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 October 2026 at 12:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 53.1% | 39.8% | -13.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.6% | 30.9% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 4.40 | 20.3% | 29.3% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.35 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.3 pts
Projected Score
Aragua FC 0–0 Monagas II
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Aragua FC
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Aragua FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Aragua FCLDWWW
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
Monagas IIWWLWW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Aragua FCMonagas II
42.0Attack55.6
76.5Defence67.9
56.8Form66.7
60.0Power65.2
0.85xG0.77