Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Aragua FC are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Marítimo are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLDDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Marítimo hold a 3.5-point power-rating edge (53.0 v 56.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.2% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 16% BTTS chance and 8% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
54.2%
Model confidence
54.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80