Aragua FCvs
Caracas FC
COMPLETEDVenezuela · Copa Venezuela · 10/14/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caracas FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aragua FC 3-1 Caracas FC
Original prediction
Caracas FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 13:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 56.3% | 36.8% | -19.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 25.8% | 24.9% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 5.01 | 17.8% | 38.2% | 20.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Caracas FC
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Caracas FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20