Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Aragua FC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Bolívar are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Aragua FC hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (53.0 v 50.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.6% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 16% BTTS chance and 8% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
53.6%
Model confidence
53.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00