Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Aragua FC are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Bolívar are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Aragua FC hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (53.0 v 50.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.3% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 16% BTTS chance and 8% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
37.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 7 · avg 0.20/1.40
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60