Aragua FCvs
Atletico Avila FC
COMPLETEDVenezuela · Segunda División · 9/27/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aragua FC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Aragua FC 0-0 Atletico Avila FC, with an exact score probability of 26%.
Prediction record
Final result
Aragua FC 1-0 Atletico Avila FC
Original prediction
Aragua FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 10:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 64.0% | 52.1% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.1% | 30.0% | 5.9 pts |
| Away | 7.48 | 11.9% | 17.9% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.0 pts
Projected Score
Aragua FC 0–0 Atletico Avila FC
Exact score probability: 26%
Predicted outcome
Aragua FC
Probability
52.1%
Model confidence
52.1%
Aragua FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20