APIA Leichhardt Tigersvs
Sydney United
COMPLETEDAustralia · New South Wales NPL · 9/13/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
APIA Leichhardt Tigers · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1-3 Sydney United
Original prediction
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.5% | 42.9% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 30.0% | 26.3% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 28.6% | 30.8% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60