APIA Leichhardt Tigersvs
St George City FA
COMPLETEDAustralia · New South Wales NPL · 8/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
APIA Leichhardt Tigers · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 4-2 St George City FA
Original prediction
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 63.7% | 74.3% | 10.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.40 | 20.6% | 16.1% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 5.76 | 15.7% | 9.6% | -6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
Probability
74.3%
Model confidence
74.3%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40