APIA Leichhardt Tigersvs
NWS Spirit
COMPLETEDAustralia · New South Wales NPL · 9/6/2026, 6:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
APIA Leichhardt Tigers · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3-0 NWS Spirit
Original prediction
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 17:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 62.2% | 66.0% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.21 | 21.5% | 19.4% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 5.52 | 16.4% | 14.6% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
Probability
66.0%
Model confidence
66.0%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60